Tuesday, January 4, 2011

NFL playoff seeding rules: Fine just the way they are

The NFL playoff seeding rules are under fire thanks to the Seattle Seahawks, who managed to snag the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs despite their 7-9 record.

Under the current NFL playoff seeding rules, the four division champions in each conference get the top four playoff seeds. The Seahawks won the championship of the lowly NFC West, so they got the fourth seed -- and a home game -- even though the two wild card teams (New Orleans and Green Bay) had much better records (11-5 and 10-6, respectively).

There's an outcry over the NFL playoff seeding rules this year because the Seahawks are the first losing team to ever win its division. But, as Tom Jones would say, it's not unusual for division winners to have worse records than wild card teams. In fact, this year marks the fourth consecutive time it has happened. Take a look:

NFL playoff seeding

2009-10 season: At 10-6, the NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals had a worse record than both wild card teams, Green Bay and Philadelphia, who were both 11-5.

2008-09 season: Both the AFC and NFC West champions, San Diego (8-8) and Arizona (9-7), had worse records than their conference's two wild card teams.

2007-08 season: The AFC North Champion Pittsburgh Steelers finished 10-6, which was worse than the wild card Jacksonville Jaguars, who were 11-5.

None of these cases caused much of a stir, and the NFL playoff seeding rules have worked fine ever since the league expanded the playoffs. They reward teams for winning their divisions and assume that, over time, the differences in quality among the divisions will balance out. A losing team making the playoffs is a complete anomaly, and changing the rules in response to this isolated case would be a total overreaction.

Changing the NFL playoff seeding rules would also call into question the entire structure of the league. The NFL has two conferences with four divisions each, and each team plays every other team in its division twice. These in-division games are the most important, because a division title carries the promise of one of the top four playoff spots.

If winning a division doesn't guarantee one of the top NFL playoff seeds, or even a postseason berth at all, then what's the point of a schedule weighted towards in-division games -- or even divisions at all?

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