Thursday, April 7, 2011

Measuring run production in baseball (or proof Ichiro is overrated)

I was listening to Felger and Mazz on the radio the other day, and Tony Massarotti was talking about how overrated Ichiro Suzuki is. Mazz's basic premise was that Ichiro's high number of hits doesn't mean much, because he doesn't score a lot of runs.

I had some issues with this argument, mainly the comparison of hits to runs scored. After thinking the issue through, I realized it's more fair and thorough to compare the number of times a player gets on base to the number of runs he produces, either by driving them in or by crossing home plate himself. So I devised this formula:

(runs scored + runs batted in - home runs) / (hits + walks)

(A home run counts as both a run scored and a run batted in, so subtracting home runs from the sum of runs scored and runs batted in ensures that this formula doesn't inflate run-production numbers.)

The resulting number represents how many runs a hitter produces each time he reaches base. For example, Alex Rodriguez led the majors in 2010 by producing 0.845 runs each time he reached base.

This number is useful, but it can be deceiving. A player with 70 hits, 30 walks, 15 homers, 60 RBI and 35 runs scored would produce an A-Rod-like 0.8 runs each time he reached base. But over a full season, those numbers would also result in both a batting average and an on-base percentage below .250 -- not A-Rod-like at all.

To make the number of runs produced per times on base more valuable, you have to factor in how often the player gets on base. So I tweaked my math, taking the result of the original formula and multiplying it by the player's on base-percentage:

(runs scored + runs batted in - home runs) / (hits + walks) x on-base percentage

But of course, the formula for on-base percentage is:

(hits + walks) / plate appearances

Which means the full formula is:

((runs scored + runs batted in - home runs) / (hits + walks)) x((hits + walks) / plate appearances)

And that simplifies to:

(runs scored + runs batted in - home runs) / plate appearances

After doing all this work, I looked around online and found several similar attempts to quantify run production, but none that took this same exact approach. The names "run production average," "run production percentage" and "run production index" were all taken (and one was even trademarked), so I'll just call this stat "runs produced per plate appearance" (RPPPA).

I took the 2010 MLB statistics and calculated RPPPA for every hitter who qualified for the batting title, and guess who had the third-lowest number? That's right: Ichiro. Here are the full results:


PLAYER TEAM RPPPA
Miguel Cabrera DET .311
Carlos Gonzalez COL .308
Troy Tulowitzki COL .305
Josh Hamilton TEX .293
Alex Rodriguez NYY .288
Joey Votto CIN .288
Carlos Quentin CHW .286
Delmon Young MIN .283
Carl Crawford TB .280
Mark Teixeira NYY .278
Albert Pujols STL .276
Evan Longoria TB .275
Ryan Howard PHI .274
Vladimir Guerrero TEX .274
Jose Bautista TOR .273
Corey Hart MIL .271
Robinson Cano NYY .271
Jonny Gomes CIN .271
Ryan Braun MIL .268
Joe Mauer MIN .267
Chase Utley PHI .267
Alex Rios CHW .262
Paul Konerko CHW .260
David Ortiz BOS .260
Matt Holliday STL .260
Jayson Werth PHI .259
Drew Stubbs CIN .258
Dan Uggla FLA .257
Brett Gardner NYY .252
Adrian Beltre BOS .252
Scott Rolen CIN .251
Aubrey Huff SF .248
Adam LaRoche ARI .247
Nick Swisher NYY .245
Hanley Ramirez FLA .245
Ryan Zimmerman WSH .245
Jason Kubel MIN .243
David Wright NYM .243
Rickie Weeks MIL .242
Colby Rasmus STL .242
Hunter Pence HOU .241
Michael Cuddyer MIN .241
Shin-Soo Choo CLE .241
Adam Dunn WSH .241
Chris Young ARI .241
Aramis Ramirez CHC .240
Marlon Byrd CHC .238
Michael Young TEX .236
Derek Jeter NYY .236
Martin Prado ATL .236
Andres Torres SF .234
Mark Reynolds ARI .232
Curtis Granderson NYY .230
Adrian Gonzalez SD .229
Jason Heyward ATL .229
Victor Martinez BOS .228
James Loney LAD .228
Torii Hunter LAA .228
Derrek Lee ATL/CHC .228
Luke Scott BAL .228
Casey McGehee MIL .227
Alfonso Soriano CHC .227
Alex Gonzalez TOR/ATL .227
Andre Ethier LAD .225
Jason Bartlett TB .225
Kurt Suzuki OAK .224
Justin Upton ARI .224
Raul Ibanez PHI .223
Juan Uribe SF .223
Ben Zobrist TB .222
Angel Pagan NYM .221
Gaby Sanchez FLA .221
B.J. Upton TB .221
Cody Ross SF/FLA .221
Bobby Abreu LAA .221
Alexei Ramirez CHW .220
Brian McCann ATL .220
Jay Bruce CIN .220
Prince Fielder MIL .219
Ryan Ludwick STL/SD .219
Matt Kemp LAD .218
Jeff Francoeur TEX/NYM .218
Adam Jones BAL .218
Juan Pierre CHW .216
J.D. Drew BOS .215
Shane Victorino PHI .215
Mike Napoli LAA .215
Brandon Phillips CIN .215
Carlos Pena TB .214
Hideki Matsui LAA .214
Vernon Wells TOR .213
Jose Reyes NYM .213
Jose Guillen KC/SF .212
Austin Jackson DET .212
Billy Butler KC .211
Yuniesky Betancourt KC .210
Placido Polanco PHI .210
Andrew McCutchen PIT .210
Dexter Fowler COL .209
Ike Davis NYM .209
Kelly Johnson ARI .208
Ian Desmond WSH .208
Omar Infante ATL .207
Stephen Drew ARI .207
Rajai Davis OAK .207
Howard Kendrick LAA .207
Carlos Lee HOU .207
Jhonny Peralta CLE/DET .206
Brennan Boesch DET .205
Denard Span MIN .205
Orlando Hudson MIN .205
Johnny Damon DET .205
Lyle Overbay TOR .204
Aaron Hill TOR .204
Michael Bourn HOU .204
Jeff Keppinger HOU .203
Kevin Kouzmanoff OAK .202
Marco Scutaro BOS .201
Skip Schumaker STL .200
Garrett Jones PIT .198
Miguel Tejada BAL/SD .197
Orlando Cabrera CIN .196
Jorge Cantu TEX/FLA .193
Elvis Andrus TEX .191
Casey Blake LAD .189
Daric Barton OAK .189
A.J. Pierzynski CHW .189
Ty Wigginton BAL .188
Starlin Castro CHC .188
Cliff Pennington OAK .187
Chase Headley SD .187
Scott Podsednik KC/LAD .185
Brandon Inge DET .184
Franklin Gutierrez SEA .181
Pablo Sandoval SF .181
Nick Markakis BAL .181
Yadier Molina STL .181
Alberto Callaspo LAA/KC .180
Adam Lind TOR .176
Melky Cabrera ATL .175
Alcides Escobar MIL .175
Yunel Escobar TOR/ATL .168
Erick Aybar LAA .167
Ryan Theriot CHC/LAD .160
Jose Lopez SEA .159
Nyjer Morgan WSH .159
Ichiro Suzuki SEA .154
Cesar Izturis BAL .143
Chone Figgins SEA .142

No comments: